Credentials matter, but the work should stand on its own. I want you to see how I think.
Fortunes Visualized takes complicated financial choices and makes the tradeoffs visible. My goal is to be clear without pretending certainty: show which facts matter, which numbers are estimates, and what could change the answer.
Founder and host
Experience matters most when it improves judgment.
I built Netflix’s first business data science team and was Tableau’s first director of analytics.
For more than 30 years, I have worked on questions where the obvious metric was rarely the whole answer. Fortunes Visualized applies that same habit to education, housing, debt, careers, retirement, family, and business decisions.
“I love helping people see new ways to improve their lives, especially by thinking long-term, questioning assumptions, and grounding important decisions in data.”
Trust grows when the work can be checked.
I will give you my conclusion, show you the sources and numbers behind it, and explain what would make me change my mind.
- Netflix
- Built the company’s first business data science team and developed subscriber lifetime-value and retention frameworks used across marketing, operations, and finance.
- Tableau
- Served as Tableau’s first director of analytics, helped create its original authorized training program, and wrote the first dedicated Tableau book.
- Decision systems
- Led work spanning SAS, Oracle, Yahoo, Navy Cyber, governed AI systems, national-scale forecasting, and a simulation engine supporting a $1B-plus pharmaceutical acquisition.
- Independent recognition
- Tableau co-founder and Turing Award laureate Pat Hanrahan built part of his 2012 Tableau Conference keynote around The Accidental Analyst and its analytical framework.
Most people do not need a more complicated model. They need the right details.
A useful comparison leaves out things that do not change the decision and keeps the things that do. The discipline is knowing the difference.
- 01
Separate facts from estimates
Show what is known, what is estimated, what you supplied, and what is still missing.
- 02
Look at more than one future
Compare a reasonable middle case with better and worse outcomes instead of pretending one forecast is certain.
- 03
Find what matters most
Change the important numbers across a reasonable range and see which ones actually move the answer. If two matter about the same amount, say so.
- 04
Find the Tipping Point
Find the number or condition where the preferred choice changes.
- 05
Say what could change the answer
Explain what new fact or changed number could change the conclusion.
- 06
Give a clear conclusion
Give a clear conclusion while being honest about what is uncertain.
The goal is simple: move from “I have no idea how to compare this” to “I know what matters, I know where the answer changes, and I can explain why I am making this choice.”
Sources and material assumptions are identified whenever practical. Public information can still be incomplete, outdated, estimated, or incorrect.
Models may omit taxes, fees, inflation, transaction costs, changing interest rates, market volatility, personal circumstances, and unexpected events unless those factors are specifically included.
Reaction episodes use public information and reasonable estimates. They are not attempts to reconstruct every detail of another person's finances.
Read the full Financial Disclaimer →